The Problem of Safe Water - The Lernaean Hydra?

Could Greek mythology's water serpent, the Lernaean Hydra, be is an excellent model to define our problem of Safe water aka freshwater?

The Lernaean Hydra

Lernaean Hydra
Source - eaudrey.com

The Hydra was the guardian of the Underworld and lived beneath the waters of a lake, the Lake of Lerna. It was shaped like a serpent with its heads its unique feature: It had multiple heads and would grow two heads for every one head that was cut off. One of the Hydra's heads was called the Immortal Head because it could not be cut off.

Heraces
(silver sculpture from the 1530s)
Source - wikipedia.org

Heracles (Hercules, to us) was charged with the task to kill the Hydra. He initially tried cutting off individual heads but saw two new heads replace those he chopped off.

Eventually he did figure out a way to kill the Hydra. Maybe, Heracles' solution shows us the way to solve the problem of safe water - more on this in the next blog post.

Constant Amount of Freshwater Precipitation 

Precipitation in rain, snow and other forms is the only act of nature that makes safe drinking water (aka freshwater) a renewable resource.

Annual Precipitation
Source - http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2008/VernonWu.shtml

The aggregate global annual freshwater precipitation has stayed more-or-less constant over time - it has never changed in an amount that might give us reason to classify freshwater as a nonrenewable resource! 

Variability in annual amount is not significant by any measure.

Whatever action humanity may take, this cycle of aggregate precipitation continues unabated. So there would conceivably not be a water problem at all unless we are missing something

India precipitation change
Source - delayedoccilater.wordpress.com

Changing precipitation patterns

Change in US precipitation
Source - meted.ucar.edu

Change in Africa precipitation
Source - scrippsblogs.ucsd.edu

This missing something is variability in local rainfall, snowfall and other deposits of freshwater i.e. the variability in aggregate precipitation at any single location. 

The problem of safe water is, thus, characterized in the changes that surface when we examine local changes in precipitation patterns.

How is the Problem of Freshwater a Hydra?
Our global precipitation amount is the body of the Hydra that doesn't change while the heads are the local problems that are as many as places where people live and work - a new factory needs additional safe water but may end up polluting a local stream from where we used to get freshwater; a city grows in population that requires the city fathers to build a new aqueduct to transport safe water from hundreds of miles away; simply look at any local community for its future vulnerabilities to its existing safe water supplies!
Like the Hydra of Heracles, our Hydra of freshwater supply grows a new head - usually too many multiple new heads - whenever local precipitation levels change beyond humanity's ability to counter that change with a compensating change in demand.

The Challenge of Safe Water

Humanity's ability to cope at the local level with the variability of nature's continuously renewed safe water supply is our primary challenge that can rip apart the foundations of our societies everywhere in the world, once again, in the 21st century.

How Successful Are We At FreshWater Management?

A study was completed in early 2010 that mapped threats, like scarcity and pollution, to freshwater supplies at the regional level. This study shows that humankind has, so far, a good record at combating threats to freshwater security is many parts of the world.
Conclusions of the Study
1. About 80% of the world's population exists in areas where freshwater supplies are NOT secure
2. The most severe threat is to 3.4 billion people
Natural Areas of Freshwater Scarcity

Natural areas of Scarcity
Source - nature.com

Looking at the global map:
- Much of North America (especially the population centers of Canada, US and Mexico) and Western Europe is under high stress. Many areas experience extreme natural stress
- Much of Middle Africa should be fairly unstressed
- Most of India and Western China are under high natural stress.
- There are wide areas with NO natural water flows like, much of Australia, northern and Southern Africa and Inner Asia.
Impact of Human Intervention

Freshwater Managed by Humankind
Source - nature.com

Looking at this global map, some startling results are visible:
- Much of North America (except Mexico) is being managed to virtually eliminate natural unavailability of freshwater
- Middle Africa, despite being under few natural forces of water stress, is experiencing extreme freshwater scarcity
- India's water management is somewhat successful at alleviating natural water stresses but has a long way to go to be freshwater secure
- China's water management is somewhat successful at alleviating natural water stresses but has a long way to go to be freshwater secure
Assumptions underlying the Study
Undoubtedly, we need to better understand and agree with all the assumptions, subjective factors, weighing of individual threats, combining of threats, etc before people all over the world will accept how well or how poor a job they have done on freshwater security.
However, there are three conclusions that we should all be able to agree on:
A. The threat of freshwater scarcity is a common threat virtually everywhere around the globe.
B. There are two options to resolve this common threat: We can
EITHER work together, addressing the BIG scale of the threat, to find a universal solution, 
OR we leave it to individual nations and regions to work out their individual custom solutions.
C. The problem of freshwater insecurity is so large in scale that time is of the essence i.e. we must eradicate freshwater security quickly before the increasing freshwater demand overwhelms us. This increasing demand is coming in the next decade from the 500+ million people who are expected to dramatically improve their Standard of Living and the 700 million additions to the human population

WORLD WATER DAY March 22, 2012

The GOOD news

Source - guardian.co.uk

"Drinking Water Access" MDG
The Millennium Development Goal: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking-water
Goal has been met ahead of schedule
By this measure:
(a) 89%  of the global population (6.1 billion people) had access to clean drinking water by 2010,
(b) 92% of the global population will have access to safe drinking water by 2015, and 
(c) Between 1990 and 2010, more than 2 billion people gained access to clean drinking water


The NOT-so-Good facts
1. An estimated 1.1 billion people still lack access to clean drinking water
2. 2.6 billion people don't have adequate sanitation
3. 1.8 billion people die every year from diseases associated with dirty water


A Global Crisis Looms

Source - 

1. The MDG goal assessment (above) becomes clearer when the details are closely reviewed.
- Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania (the orange colored areas) are NOT on track to meet Global drinking water access goals.
- Data at the country level also hides many extended periods of drought in many countries including those in the developed world (e.g. in Southwest USA and in Eastern Australia)
2. More than 40% of the world's population will live in areas experiencing high stress by 2050 (Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)
3. An additional US$30 billion is needed to provide access to everyone
4. Considering only population growth, rainfall amounts per person have dropped precipitously e.g. rainfall in Pakistan provided 5,000 cubic meters of freshwater for each person in 1947. Rainfall provides less than 1,000 cubic meters for each person today.

A few other facts
1. Food production is the single consumer of freshwater supplies today - over 80% of available freshwater supplies in Asia are used for growing food.
2. China, India and the US use roughly one-third of the roughly 4,000 cubic kilometers of freshwater extracted globally each year - India uses approx 13%, China uses approx 12% while the US uses approx 9%. (source: Fourth World Water Development Report by UNESCO)
3. Food demand is expected to rise by 70% by 2050


The way forward

Technological Innovation or .....?

Am I Immune From Water Shortage?

Investing in real estate has always been about location, location, location. Water shortage too has a similar qualifier (all water problems and their solutions are local, local, local) that is compounded by the fact that no location is immune from water shortage.


A world rich in water - for some!
When currently used and  accessible water supplies are studied at a macro level, the conclusions might be:
- Approximately 50% of the world (the blue and grey areas in the map) does not have a water problem,
- If I reside in one of these water-adequate areas, I should not have to worry about water shortages, and
- If I live in the red, orange and green areas, I could experience water scarcity e.g.if I live in the southwest region of the US, then I could experience water shortages unless I have a way to transport water from outside to where I live or I choose to live in the vicinity of the right water transportation infrastructure.


The devil is in the details

Source - NRDC

A county-by-county map of the United states supports the macro-level conclusion that the southwest region of the of the US is prone to water shortages. However, assuming that predictions of Climate Change turn out to be accurate, the map says a lot more:
- 412 counties (marked in red) spread all over the US will experience water supply shortages and some of them are in water rich areas like Florida.
- Only 30% (929 out of 3141) counties would be immune from water shortages in the future i.e. the vast majority of the US population will need to deal with water scarcity by 2050. 


The water-immune are few in number!

Source - 

A map on global distribution of human population identifies that a very large percent of the global population will experience water shortage because of where they live.
In these areas, every city dweller knows that 24/7 supply of fresh water is unheard of today. Every city dweller also knows to plan their day around their need to stock up with water whenever it becomes available.

5.5 Billion people have experience with Water Shortage

80% have experience with water shortages
Image Source - atlas1. wikispaces.com

When the global population is tallied by where they live, nearly 80% of the people on Earth live on a near-daily basis with not having enough safe freshwater when they need or want it.
Faced with freshwater shortage, their options range between:
- Adopting the resigned attitude that justifies using unsafe readily-available water, and
- Arranging their daily schedule around the gathering of necessary amounts of safe freshwater.
For these 5.5 billion, water is a personal local challenge.
- The remaining 20%, nearly 1.5 billion people, mostly have water for the taking whenever they so desire.