Saturday, November 10, 2012

Wish Freshwater Scarcity was as Simple as the Fiscal Cliff !

The US Fiscal cliff and Global Freshwater Scarcity are quite similar but it is the differences that matter and push for a very similar remedy for both.
The US Fiscal Cliff
The US Fiscal Cliff
Source - healthreformexplained.com
The US faces a Fiscal Cliff on January 1, 2013 when a mix of spending cuts and tax increases go into effect unless a deal is reached between politicians in Washington DC by end of day December 31, 2012 - a little over 8 weeks from today.
The Freshwater Cliff, of course has two possible outcomes once the end of the 'ramp' is reached:
- Either gravity will take over and the US will drop down into whatever is at the bottom of the cliff and a number of unpleasant results will be felt
- or, the target on the other side will be hit and nothing with too extreme negative impacts will result.
The Global Freshwater Cliff
The Freshwater "Gap"
Source - World Economic Forum
While the fiscal cliff has either an acceptable or an unacceptable 'end', the Freshwater Cliff has NO END - the Freshwater Cliff only gets worse with time i.e. it has only a worsening prognosis. 
In the graph, the Freshwater Cliff is the dark area that continues to grow with time i.e. unlike the Fiscal Cliff, there is no target that can be defined like it can in the case of the fiscal cliff.
This essentially means that the "drop" from the freshwater cliff will continue forever till an effective remedy is found.
Representative impacts of the continuing increase in the "freshwater gap" include a combination of:
- more geographical areas experiencing shortages (droughts) and/or overwhelming supplies (floods)
- droughts and floods of greater severity measured in terms of their negative impacts
- greater uncertainty in freshwater supplies in more areas

The challenge, thus, from both the Fiscal Cliff and the Freshwater Cliff is the same: Find a remedy that ends the "fall off the cliff" quickly and with the least negative impact on life and livelihoods

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