Small numbers, like everything else, when looked at without a framing context have no meaning at all and usually lead to the wrong conclusion. The oft-repeated statement "Only 2.5% of the water on Earth is freshwater" is factually correct considering the measurements and assumptions behind its quantification. But is it correct in implying that because 2.5% is a small number, it only represents a problem?
Lumps of Sugar
If the question is: Are 2 lumps of sugar more than enough to feed all the ants in the world or would 600 lumps of sugar be adequate?
The likely answer usually is: 600 lumps.
The primary reasoning behind this answer is the assumption that as 600 is more than 2, then 600 is likely to NOT be the wrong answer. And, as the convoluted logic goes, if it is less likely to be the wrong answer, then, of course, it is more likely to be right answer.
The other bits of assumption are what we know about how much sugar an ant requires and the actual size of each lump of sugar! And as we do not precisely know these bits of information, we go with the larger number i.e. 600 lumps while assuming the size of each sugar lump based on how large we think the spoon is. This spoon size is based on the spoons we usually use.
But what if each lump was 1kilometer long on each edge? And there were 150 Trillion ants in the world? Then too the larger number would be the answer, because the number is simply larger. Going with the larger number of 600 lumps is just safer because it is less likely to be wrong.
This logic applies also to freshwater supplies
Only 2.5% of the Earth's Water is Freshwater
What is the conclusion when we see the world's water (larger blue sphere) and freshwater in liquid form (smaller blue sphere), displayed relative to the size of the Earth?
The 1st conclusion: We have very little water and even less liquid freshwater! (relative to the size of the Earth, of course)
The 2nd conclusion: We could quickly run out of freshwater! ... because see how little of it exists in comparison with the size of the Earth.
But what's our conclusion when we know the following:
The total amount of water on Earth is:
- About 332,500,000 cubic miles (mi3) = 1,386,000,000 cubic kilometers (km3)
- The larger sphere is about 860 miles (about 1,385 kilometers) in diameter
The amount of Freshwater
If 2.5% of the total water is Freshwater, then the amount of freshwater is: 8,312,500 cubic miles (mi3) = 3,465,000 cubic kilometers (km3)
The size of these numbers makes it very difficult to reach a conclusion one way or another! Even conceptualizing how large (or small) a cubic mile is, is difficult for most of us.
The Takeaway
Small percentages do not necessarily imply insufficiency or sufficiency.
Much more analysis is required before we can judge if we are facing freshwater insufficiency or insecurity anytime in the near or far future.
Lumps of Sugar
 |
| Source - blog.cytalk.com |
 |
| Source - twobitbard.weebly.com |
The primary reasoning behind this answer is the assumption that as 600 is more than 2, then 600 is likely to NOT be the wrong answer. And, as the convoluted logic goes, if it is less likely to be the wrong answer, then, of course, it is more likely to be right answer.
 |
| Source - clker.com |
But what if each lump was 1kilometer long on each edge? And there were 150 Trillion ants in the world? Then too the larger number would be the answer, because the number is simply larger. Going with the larger number of 600 lumps is just safer because it is less likely to be wrong.
This logic applies also to freshwater supplies
Only 2.5% of the Earth's Water is Freshwater
 |
| Source - go.water.usgs.gov |
The 1st conclusion: We have very little water and even less liquid freshwater! (relative to the size of the Earth, of course)
The 2nd conclusion: We could quickly run out of freshwater! ... because see how little of it exists in comparison with the size of the Earth.
But what's our conclusion when we know the following:
The total amount of water on Earth is:
- About 332,500,000 cubic miles (mi3) = 1,386,000,000 cubic kilometers (km3)
- The larger sphere is about 860 miles (about 1,385 kilometers) in diameter
The amount of Freshwater
If 2.5% of the total water is Freshwater, then the amount of freshwater is: 8,312,500 cubic miles (mi3) = 3,465,000 cubic kilometers (km3)
The size of these numbers makes it very difficult to reach a conclusion one way or another! Even conceptualizing how large (or small) a cubic mile is, is difficult for most of us.
The Takeaway
Small percentages do not necessarily imply insufficiency or sufficiency.
Much more analysis is required before we can judge if we are facing freshwater insufficiency or insecurity anytime in the near or far future.
No comments:
Post a Comment